分类归档 world

Reporter zai Fei

"Save globalization! Buy a China electric car! " Last year, a British magazine introduced the new trend of China’s new energy vehicle export on this topic, and said in the subtitle: "Electric vehicles can prevent the world from decoupling."

In recent years, the export of new energy vehicles in China has become a new phenomenon that cannot be ignored all over the world. In 2021, China’s exports of new energy vehicles account for one third of the world’s total, making it the largest exporter of new energy vehicles in the world. Last year, the export scale of new energy vehicles in China doubled on the basis of 2021, reaching 679,000 vehicles.

No wonder the reporter of this magazine said about his car selection experience: "Some of the most attractive electric cars in the European market are either made in China (Tesla) or China brand (SAIC MG)."

Shanghai is an important force in the export of new energy vehicles in China. Tesla Giga Shanghai alone accounts for half of China’s new energy vehicle exports. Another big factory, SAIC, has won the top spot in the export of domestic car companies for seven consecutive years, and a large part of the export models are new energy vehicles.

But strong export is not the whole story. Shanghai automobile industry is soberly aware that in the surging new energy automobile market in China, the voice of Shanghai automobile is not loud, and there are not many models with market influence, especially high-end models; Although Shanghai’s automobile production ranks among the top in the country and keeps growing, the industry profit rate has declined instead of increasing. Shanghai, a traditional automobile industry town, is exploring the transformation and upgrading to high-end, green and intelligent.

The export volume and quality of new energy vehicles are rising at the same time

On July 20th last year, the first batch of thousands of SAIC MG MULAN (named MG4 ELECTRIC overseas) meandered at Haitong Wharf, waiting to be transported to Zeebrugge Port, Belgium. This is a new energy vehicle designed by SAIC for global consumers: in Europe, the interior is simple and the chassis is tough; In the hot Middle East, strengthen air conditioning and rapid refrigeration; In mountainous areas such as Chile, the climbing ability of vehicles is improved by 20%. MG MULAN is therefore also known as the "global car".

Andrew Stewart, sales director of SAIC MG UK, said: "MG is one of the fastest growing automobile brands in the UK. The car itself is very well made, cost-effective and full of technology. MG is sold in more than a dozen European countries. In 2020, there were only 65 outlets, and now it is close to 650. "

Represented by MG brand, SAIC sold 1.017 million vehicles in overseas markets in 2022, up 45.9% year-on-year. In terms of proportion, for every three China cars sold overseas, one is made by SAIC.

Tesla Giga Shanghai is also the main exporter of new energy vehicles in China. Last year, this factory delivered a total of 710,000 Tesla vehicles, of which 270,000 were exported overseas, accounting for about 40% of the country’s total export of new energy vehicles that year.

While the total export volume of new energy vehicles in Shanghai has increased, the export products and export destinations have also undergone major changes. Supported by the Shanghai Fair Trade Project, the 2022 International Competitiveness Report of Shanghai New Energy Automobile Industry issued by the Research Center of New Economy and Industry International Competitiveness of Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences holds that the transformation is mainly reflected in two points: First, the export of products takes the lead in realizing new energy. Since 2019, the export of Shanghai’s automobile industry has begun to change to new energy automobile products, and a large part of the new export volume and the original export volume have been transformed into new energy automobile products; Second, the target market takes the lead in conquering the highest-end market in the world. The export of Shanghai’s new energy automobile industry to European countries has greatly improved, and the European Union has become the largest export region of Shanghai’s new energy automobile industry.

Tang Yunyi, deputy director of the Institute of Applied Economics of Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, said: "The international competitiveness of Shanghai’s new energy vehicles first stems from the complete layout. In 1980s, with the foundation of SAIC-Volkswagen in Anting, Shanghai’s automobile industry was integrated into the global industrial division of labor system, and these years have always followed the pace of industrial transformation. Secondly, Shanghai has always insisted on "walking on two legs", that is, independent research and development and introduction and absorption are carried out simultaneously, and the two promote each other. Finally, in the global supply chain industry chain, Shanghai’s hub and node functions are very important, which is also fully reflected in the new energy automobile industry. "

Shanghai needs local high-end new energy brands.

In recent years, we have seen the improvement of the international competitiveness of Shanghai’s automobile industry, but on the other hand, we can also see that Shanghai is not prominent in the domestic new energy automobile industry.

Looking at the national new energy vehicle market, regardless of BYD’s sales of 1.86 million vehicles last year, even new forces whose sales failed to meet expectations, such as "Wei Xiaoli" (Wei Lai, Tucki, Ideal), Nezha and Zero Run, all crossed the 100,000-vehicle mark. Ai ‘an, a new energy brand under the traditional car company Guangzhou Automobile Group, sold a total of 270,000 vehicles last year, second only to BYD and Tesla. In addition to the wholly foreign-owned brand Tesla, Shanghai needs more local new energy brands with market influence.

There is also a hidden worry related to this: the profit rate of Shanghai automobile industry has dropped significantly in recent years. The International Competitiveness Report of Shanghai New Energy Automobile Industry in 2022 calculated that this data decreased from 16.33% in 2018 to 7.77% in 2021, a decrease of more than 50%.

Industry researchers believe that the decline in profit margins is first and foremost a global industrial phenomenon, not only in Shanghai. Tang Yunyi said: "The price of upstream raw materials, such as energy storage batteries, continues to rise, which leads to great cost pressure and reduces the profit margin of vehicle manufacturers. The supply chain was affected by the epidemic, and it was intermittent, which caused interference to the operation. In addition, the competition in the new energy vehicle market is also very fierce, and various manufacturers have to compress profit margins in order to seize the market. "

As a city with a long history of automobile industry, Shanghai’s new energy automobile industry has also encountered a transformation problem that the new forces of making cars have not. In the past, whether it is a joint venture brand or a local brand, most of the profits came from fuel vehicles. However, since 2018, the auto market in China has been continuously adjusted back, and with the strong rise of new energy vehicles, not only the sales volume of fuel vehicles has declined year by year, but also the net profit of bicycles has declined simultaneously.

Although Shanghai’s automobile industry has gradually turned to new energy sources, these new energy vehicles generally have low unit prices and meager profits, which are not enough to make up for the lost profits in the fuel vehicle market. In 2021, SAIC-GM-Wuling sold 1.76 million vehicles, but the net profit of returning to the mother was only 1.135 billion yuan, and the net profit of bicycles was 645 yuan.

Shanghai automobile industry has realized that in order to improve profit rate and competitiveness, it is necessary to take the road of high-end, green and intelligent. In 2020, SAIC, Zhangjiang Hi-Tech and Ali cooperated to establish Zhiji Automobile, and the R brand became Feifan Automobile independently. In the past less than a year, new models such as Zhiji L7, Feifan R7 and Zhiji LS7 have been listed one after another, all of which are aimed at the high-end market of more than 300,000 yuan. Synchronizing with the high-end route is the high investment in R&D. In 2021, SAIC spent 20.6 billion yuan on R&D (the data for 2022 has not yet been released), which not only surpassed "Wei Xiaoli", but also overwhelmed BYD, which is in the limelight, ranking first among China car companies. A large part of these R&D funds are spent on new energy projects.

"Car companies not only need to accelerate technology iteration and form more competitive new energy products, but also pay more attention to the after-use and after-service markets. For example, in the use environment of intelligent networking, the maintenance of core components of new energy vehicles is largely controlled by intelligent software, which requires the use of more accurate and rigorous maintenance equipment. These new markets will extend the industrial chain length of automobiles, improve the value space, and also put forward new requirements for the operation system and talent system. " Tang Yunxi said.

At the beginning of the new year, new energy subsidies have been withdrawn, Tesla’s price has been drastically reduced, and BYD has been looking up to the brand to launch a million-dollar SUV…… … These major events that test the brand positioning and profit margin of the automobile industry have come one after another, and more intense competition is just around the corner.

　　Introduction: Since April, many senior officials, including President of Geely Holding Group, CEO of Geely Automobile Group and President An Conghui, have intensively reduced their holdings of Geely shares.

　　In April, Geely Automobile (HKEx: 00175) ushered in intensive reduction of senior management. The reporter learned from Geely that the response is: collective exercise of options when they expire.

　　According to the equity data of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, since April, many senior officials including President of Geely Holding Group, CEO of Geely Automobile Group and President An Conghui have intensively reduced their holdings of Geely shares.

　　On April 16th, Zhejiang Geely Holding, whose actual controlling shareholder is Li Shufu, chairman of Geely Holding Group, reduced its holding of 85.22 million shares of Geely Automobile. An Conghui reduced his holdings by 10.7 million shares at a price of HK$ 16.53 each, with a total value of about HK$ 177 million.

　　On April 17th, An Conghui once again reduced his holdings of 5.472 million shares of Geely Automobile at a price of HK$ 17.5. After this reduction, An Conghui only holds 102,000 shares of Geely Automobile, accounting for 0% of the issued voting shares. On the same day, Yang Jian, Li Donghui and Gui Shengyue, executive directors of Geely Automobile, also reduced their holdings of Geely Automobile. Among them, Yang Jian holds 8.475 million shares, Li Donghui holds 1.376 million shares and Gui Shengyue holds 3 million shares. After the completion of this reduction, the percentages of the three people in the issued voting shares are 0.07%, 0.02% and 0.12% respectively.

　　On April 23rd, Geely Automobile was once again collectively reduced by two executive directors. Among them, Gui Shengyue reduced his holdings by 800,000 shares at an average price of HK$ 17.8, and Hong Shaolun reduced his holdings by 270,000 shares at the same average price. After the completion of this reduction, the percentage of the issued voting shares of the two is 0.12% and 0.04% respectively.

　　Market analysts believe that the intensive reduction of executives has dragged down the share price of Geely Automobile. Geely Automobile hit an eight-month high of HK$ 19.14 on April 18, and then closed down continuously for several trading days, and closed at HK$ 16.02 on April 26. According to Grunhui APP, since April, funds from Southbound have continuously flowed out of the stock, and the accumulated net selling amount has reached HK$ 3.015 billion.

　　Geely told reporters that the above reduction was due to the expiration of some executive options about 10 years ago, which had nothing to do with actual operation.

　　In fact, it is irrational to attribute the stock price decline entirely to the reduction of senior officials. In fact, on April 12th, six Geely Automobile executives, including An Conghui, Gui Shengyue, Yang Jian and Li Donghui, successively reduced their holdings of 54 million Geely Automobile shares. Li Shufu and Geely Holding Group respectively increased their holdings of 55.03 million shares of Geely Automobile.

　　For the future trend of Geely Automobile’s share price. Institutions have different views. Morgan Stanley is an active bear. It once published a technical opinion report, which reduced Geely Automobile’s investment rating and target price by HK$ 8. The bank believes that Geely’s share price will fall in the next 30 days, and the probability of this happening is expected to be between 70 and 80%. The reason behind this is that the inventory level of Geely Automobile continues to rise. It is estimated that the company’s wholesale sales in April will drop by 8-10% year-on-year, and retail sales will drop by 12-15% year-on-year. According to the bank, the inventory of Geely’s Lexus brand has risen to the level of more than two months.

　　In a recent research report, Nomura Securities still maintained Geely Automobile’s "Buy" rating and raised the company’s earnings per share forecast for 2019-2020 by 1%. Daiwa also expressed the view that it is still optimistic about Geely Automobile (00175) and gave it a "buy" rating, believing that it is a good time to absorb it. The target price for Geely Automobile is maintained at HK$ 22. (Yang Haiyan)

　　On March 30th, Geely Xingyue L Raytheon Hi·X was officially listed, and the price was 171,700 yuan and 183,700 yuan, which was 34,500 yuan more expensive than the fuel version. The biggest highlight of the new car is the Leishen engine-engine hybrid system consisting of a 1.5T three-cylinder engine and an electric motor, which greatly improves the fuel economy. The comprehensive cruising range is 1279km, and the comprehensive fuel consumption is only 4.3L/100km, which is more fuel-efficient than the Wei brand latte DHT.

　　Compared with the fuel version, the appearance of Xingyue L Raytheon Hi·X has been upgraded in detail. The middle net and lower grille on the front face have been closed, equipped with grille lights and luminous logos, and the exclusive GHS logo has been added at the tail. The new car adopts blue and white double-stitching interior color matching, and adds a lot of leather fabrics. The 12.3-inch triple screen presents a strong sense of science and technology.

　　Xingyue L Raytheon Hi·X size is consistent with the fuel version. The maximum power of 1.5T three-cylinder engine is 110kW, the maximum torque is 225N·m, the maximum power of the system is 180kW, the maximum torque of the system is 545N·m, and the acceleration time of 100 kilometers is 7.9 seconds. The overall power is ahead of Latte DHT.

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　　　 On New Year’s Eve, a new year’s eve blockbuster, produced by the movie channel and copyrighted by [Movie Network], released two production specials with the meaning of "Reunion on New Year’s Eve, yes man". "Good Cook" Wang Baoqiang, "Dedicated Eater" Wang Luodan and Tony Leung Ka Fai talked about the New Year’s Eve: "The taste of home is the best taste." Wu Junru, Xu Jinglei, David, WU GANG, Jing Tian, Zhang Yi and Huang Jue shared warm memories of the Spring Festival with the audience and wished them peace and health.

　　　 Directed by Zhang Yibai and Dong-shen Xie, the film will be staged jointly by Aaron Kwok, Wang Baoqiang, Wu Junru, Xu Jinglei, David, Wang Luodan, Tony Leung Ka Fai, Ni Dahong, Jing Tian, Zhang Yi, Wu Gang and Huang Jue, and will be shown on February 10th, the New Year’s Day.

Wang Baoqiang: Actually, I am a good cook. Wang Luodan: The taste of home is the best taste.

　　　 "Actually, I am a good cook." In recent works, Wang Baoqiang has a close relationship with food and beautiful women. In Better and Better Village Night, he cooked a story about "above the tip of the tongue" with Wang Luodan and Tony Leung Ka Fai. Wang Baoqiang, a dream-chasing chef, and Wang Luodan, a charming cook, went to the countryside to learn to cook and set up a shop in the city, but they had to be tested by Tony Leung Ka Fai, the father-in-law of the unruly chef. Hometown food PK gluttonous feast, how he can successfully hold the beauty back has become the biggest suspense of the film.

　　　 As for the cooking skills with live ammunition, director Zhang Yibai and others discovered that Wang Baoqiang was stunted on the set: "I was going to shoot a scene of Wang Baoqiang cutting cucumbers that day, but I didn’t expect to shout ‘ Start ’ He grabbed a kitchen knife and cut vegetables, which scared Tony Leung Ka Fai. At first glance, the craftsmanship was very pure. " "Not only scallion cakes, I am good at home cooking. Because I cook delicious food, Wang Luodan is chasing me." Wang Baoqiang joked that his role in the movie "Sun Guoshu" was very nutritious when he heard the name, and the specialty in real life was not just scallion cake. "Fried eggs with leeks, fried tomatoes with eggs, scrambled eggs with tomatoes, fried leeks with eggs." Wang Luodan ran several dish names in the newspaper, which sounded like an extraordinary cook, and when he thought about it carefully, he missed the bottom.

　　　 "Braised fish head, this is my favorite dish." Speaking of New Year’s Eve, Tony Leung Ka Fai, who hardly cooks and is only responsible for eating, wants to leave some saliva: "I like all the dishes on New Year’s Eve because they are all cooked by my family." Wang Baoqiang, who challenged the five-star chef in "Better and Better Village Night", also said: "It’s not the dishes with good looks and expensive prices in five-star hotels that are delicious. The best dishes are always cooked by the family, and this kindness is felt in the stomach." Wang Luodan concluded emotionally: "The taste of home is the best taste."

Next page: Wu Junru: There must be more "fish" at the dinner table. Xu Jinglei: When I was a child, I was full of courage and took two kicks.

Special topic: picture channel

　　

　　(Source: china securities journal Illustration/Wang Jianhua)

　　　　This is the best time. After 10 years of formation, the real estate industry in China has been climbing the peak of prosperity and prosperity. This is also an era full of variables. In a "rising" sound, the real estate industry has become one of the main targets of macro-control. Under the background of tight monetary policy, the turning point of "true and illusory" industry is "looming".

　　　　After the controversial year of 2007, the real estate industry will usher in a more variable year of 2008, and the long and short differences on this industry will become more and more obvious. However, standing at the crossroads of the bull market, some basic destiny can still be grasped.

　　　　Under the influence of wealth growth, demographic dividend and the continuous appreciation of RMB, the real estate boom is expected to be maintained in the next two to three years. At the same time, with the construction of housing security system and the gradual emergence of the effect of credit tightening policy, the contradiction between supply and demand in the real estate market is expected to be alleviated.

　　　　It can be predicted that in the future, the development model of over-reliance on land and financial resources will be unsustainable. Along the "Capital Roadmap", industry integration will be further developed, and various factor resources will be concentrated in enterprises with high operational efficiency.

　　Tightening credit curbs excessive demand.

　　　　If we say that the real estate regulation and control policies in 2005 and 2006 were based on "shrinking supply and restraining demand", then this year’s intensive new regulation and control policies regard "balancing supply and demand" as the first goal of the policy. Among them, the policy orientation of restraining excessive demand, especially investment demand, has been continued.

　　　　In 2007, the People’s Bank of China raised the deposit and loan interest rates six times, and the benchmark interest rate for one-year loans has been raised to 7.47%. In addition, the reserve ratio was raised to 14.5% 10 times, the highest level in more than 20 years. The rate hike and the frequency of reserve increase are rare in recent years.

　　　　In September, the central bank introduced a new policy for second homes to tighten mortgages. In December, the central bank issued a supplementary notice, and the second home loan was strictly defined on a household basis.

　　　　Hua Changjin, a researcher at GF Securities, believes that the new mortgage policy will curb the demand for improving living conditions in the current market, and the demand for investment speculation will also be curbed.

　　　　Experts in the industry explained that the buyers of the second suite are mainly middle-and high-income groups, and they mainly buy houses by investment and upgrading home ownership. At present, this part of demand undoubtedly accounts for a large proportion. When the credit conditions are loose, this demand will be gradually enlarged in the form of "margin trading".

　　　　However, at the current high price, the increase of down payment ratio and interest rate, as well as the corresponding monetary tightening policy, will increase the risk of investing in real estate, so the demand for this part of the house will gradually decline. In addition, the increasing interest burden has become another important cost factor for buyers, which has led them to delay the upgrading of home ownership.

　　　　The data shows that since the second half of this year, although real estate prices in first-tier cities have continued to rise, the transaction volume has shrunk dramatically. By the end of the year, the real estate market has fallen into a rare situation in recent years, and prices have begun to loosen. Market analysts pointed out that the local and structural decline in housing prices in the real estate market is a response to the squeeze on excessive investment and speculative demand.

　　　　Zhu Zhongyi, secretary-general of China Real Estate Association, said that the contradiction between the overall supply and demand of the real estate market still exists, so reducing investment demand will help ease the pressure of rising house prices.

　　Housing security points to effective supply.

　　　　Undeniably, China, which is in the process of urbanization, has to face the reality of rigid housing demand and land supply constraints. Therefore, the tight supply and demand is a real situation to a great extent.

　　　　The research shows that according to the per capita residential building area of 27 square meters at the end of 2006 and the compound growth rate of the national urban population of 3.28% from 2003 to 2006, there will be a demand gap of 510 million square meters of urban housing in China every year.

　　　　However, the rise in asset prices caused by abundant liquidity is undoubtedly the accumulation of "bubbles" on this "truth".

　　　　The housing problem concerns people’s livelihood. This year, China’s housing security construction has taken substantial steps. In August, the release of "Several Opinions of the State Council on Solving the Housing Difficulties of Urban Low-income Families" and the convening of the National Urban Housing Work Conference conveyed the strongest voice in the history of China’s high-level supervision of housing security.

　　　　Near the end of the year, the Ministry of Construction, together with several ministries and commissions, successively issued two important documents, namely, Measures for the Protection of Low-rent Housing and Measures for the Management of Economically Affordable Housing, in order to implement the State Council’s spirit of housing security.

　　　　The insiders believe that with the gradual construction of the housing security system, the housing problems of low-and middle-income people and wealthy people will no longer be intertwined, and a large part of the demand will no longer be met through the commercial housing market. At the same time, the clarification of housing demand at different levels is helpful to guide the structural adjustment of housing supply.

　　　　"The calculation of the gap between supply and demand in the real estate market in the future will no longer be based on the overall urban population base in the process of urbanization, which will effectively alleviate the shortage of supply and demand." An official from the Housing and Real Estate Department of the Ministry of Construction said.

　　　　As a "sandwich" middle-income group, their housing problem is also a real estate regulation need to be considered. Nie Meisheng, president of the Real Estate Chamber of Commerce of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, believes that the "two-limited housing" being introduced in various places can solve the problem that some "sandwich floors" cannot afford housing.

　　　　In October this year, the Ministry of Land and Resources requested that "in the future, the total annual supply of low-rent housing, affordable housing and low-priced, small and medium-sized ordinary commodity housing construction land shall not be less than 70% of the total residential supply." Industry experts pointed out that with the change of land supply orientation, the housing of middle-income groups will inevitably be connected with "effective supply".

　　Market differentiation continues to write capital stories

　　　　Whether it is "enclosure" or "circling money", the real estate industry tells the story that "capital is king". Therefore, to balance supply and demand as the first point of all-round regulation, on the one hand, to build housing security based on the long-term, on the other hand, to tighten credit to curb demand to solve recent worries, which will undoubtedly accelerate the differentiation of the real estate industry. Under the guidance of capital, various factor resources will converge to enterprises with high operational efficiency.

　　　　A senior person in the industry pointed out that due to the loose credit environment in recent years, the "days" of real estate enterprises are better. Industry concentration did not rise with the boom. Statistics show that there are 50,000 to 60,000 real estate enterprises in China, and there are 30,000 to 40,000 when there are few, and the market share of the top five is less than 5%.

　　　　However, under the background of stricter regulation and tight monetary policy, not all real estate enterprises can obtain sufficient cash flow, and enterprises with tight capital chains will probably be eliminated in mergers and acquisitions, and the market pricing power will also be increasingly concentrated.

　　　　Wang Shi, chairman of Vanke Company, believes that it is a good thing that industry resources are concentrated in advantageous companies. On the one hand, it can reduce idle land, on the other hand, the rights and interests of buyers can be better protected.

　　　　Financial experts pointed out that a key indicator reflecting the operational efficiency is the capital turnover rate. For real estate enterprises, the capital turnover rate is directly proportional to the land development rate. In other words, if the industry factor resources are concentrated in enterprises with high operational efficiency, it will be conducive to the speed of land development and reduce the occurrence of "hoarding land" and "covering up the market".

　　　　The efficiency of capital operation is one side of the coin, and the ability of continuous financing is the other side. After the "faucet" of credit is gradually tightened, the capital market will become a more important "water source". Since the beginning of this year, many real estate enterprises have either issued additional shares or listed on the backdoor. WIND data shows that from January to November this year, real estate listed companies raised a total of 34.6276 billion yuan through additional issuance, an increase of 145.61% over the same period last year.

　　　　It can be predicted that the overall prosperity of the real estate industry will not be reversed if the capital market still maintains smooth channels for financing high-quality companies. If there is an unbalanced allocation of capital after the credit tightening, the right to speak in the real estate industry will also shift. This is not necessarily an improvement for the current real estate industry. (Reporter Lin? )

Editor: Yu Qingqing