Xinhua News Agency, Beijing, May 9 th, People’s Daily signed an exclusive interview on May 9 th: Ask the general trend in the first quarter of the opening season — — Authoritative personages talk about the current economy of China.
People’s Daily reporter Gong Wen Xu Zhifeng Wu Qiuyu
This year is the decisive stage of building a well-off society in an all-round way and the first year of the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan", and it is also a crucial year to promote structural reform on the supply side. In the first quarter, facing the complicated domestic and international situation, China achieved a good start in economic development, structural optimization and improvement of people’s livelihood, and at the same time faced a series of deep-seated contradictions and problems. What do you think and do about China’s economy in adjustment? Recently, our reporter once again interviewed an authoritative person exclusively, taking the pulse for China’s economic consultation.
1. What do you think of the economic situation?
The overall situation of economic operation is in line with expectations, and some highlights are better than expectations. However, the inherent contradictions in economic operation have not been alleviated, and some new problems have exceeded expectations. It is difficult to describe it with simple concepts such as "getting a good start" and "Xiaoyangchun"
Comprehensive judgment shows that China’s economic operation cannot be U-shaped, let alone V-shaped, but L-shaped. This L-shape is a stage, not a year or two.
"Take a step back" means "take two steps forward". China’s economy has sufficient potential, strong resilience and large room for maneuver. Even if it is not stimulated, the speed will not drop much.
Don’t be happy about the recovery of some economic indicators; Don’t panic if some economic indicators go down.
Q: In the first quarter of this year, China’s GDP increased by 6.7% year-on-year, which was still in a reasonable range, better than market expectations. At the same time, some other economic indicators are also obviously warm. Some people think that China’s economy has achieved a "good start", others think that it has entered a "small spring", and some optimists think that China’s economy has bottomed out and will show a U-shaped reversal. Does this mean that the general trend of economic development has changed? What’s your judgment on the short-term and medium-and long-term trend of China’s economy?
Authority: On the whole, the economic situation started smoothly this year. The overall situation of economic operation is in line with expectations, and some highlights are better than expectations. However, the inherent contradictions in economic operation have not been alleviated, and some new problems have exceeded expectations. Therefore, it is difficult to describe it with simple concepts such as "opening the door" and "Xiaoyangchun". What do you think? We should stick to the two-point theory or look at it in combination with the development stage and international background.
Judging from the situation in the first quarter, we hope that the stable aspects have stabilized, and some even have an unexpected rebound. In the first quarter, GDP increased by 6.7%, the employment situation was generally stable, and residents’ income grew steadily. Economic and financial risks are generally controllable and the overall social situation is stable. The prices of some industrial products have rebounded, and the benefits of industrial enterprises have turned from falling to rising; Investment in fixed assets has accelerated, and new projects have increased substantially; The real estate market is booming in supply and marketing, and destocking has obviously accelerated.
We have also made new progress in the areas we hope to advance. The proportion of service industry continues to increase, new models and new formats are emerging, some products with high added value and high technology content are growing rapidly, residents’ consumption is escalating, domestic tourism is booming during the May 1 holiday, and the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions actively adapt to the new normal, pay attention to demand analysis, pursue innovation and quality and efficiency, and strengthen the stability of economic growth. In particular, the awareness of the importance of supply-side structural reform in various regions and departments has been continuously improved, and the work has been actively carried out in accordance with the requirements of the central authorities, and the results are gradually emerging.
However, it is undeniable that the inherent contradictions we are facing have not been fundamentally solved, and some new problems have also been exposed. The foundation of "stability" still mainly depends on the "old method", that is, investment-driven, and the pressure of fiscal balance in some areas is greater, and the probability of economic risks is rising. In particular, the investment of private enterprises has fallen sharply, and the risk points such as real estate bubble, excess capacity, non-performing loans, local debt, stock market, foreign exchange market, bond market and illegal fund-raising have increased. In some areas with low degree of marketization, low-end industries and single structure, the downward pressure on the economy is still increasing, the employment problem is prominent, and social contradictions have intensified. Therefore, when the main contradiction is structural rather than cyclical, "progress" is the foundation of "stability". "Advancing" means solving the supply-side structural and institutional problems in economic operation, which takes time, and it is still in its infancy, and the new impetus can’t afford to take the lead.
Comprehensive judgment shows that China’s economic operation cannot be U-shaped, let alone V-shaped, but L-shaped.
I want to emphasize that this L-shape is a stage, not one or two years. In the next few years, it is difficult to fundamentally change the pattern of low total demand and overcapacity. It is impossible for economic growth to continue to rise and achieve high growth for several years once it picks up. "Take a step back" means "take two steps forward". We are full of confidence in China’s development prospects. China’s economy has sufficient potential, strong resilience and large room for manoeuvre. Even if it is not stimulated, its speed will not drop much. In this regard, we must internalize in the heart and externalize in the line. Don’t be happy about the recovery of some economic indicators; Don’t panic if some economic indicators go down.
Differentiation is the necessity of economic development. Some resources began to look for new places, which led to innovation; Some of them are slow, and they are still waiting in the same place, counting on when "feng shui turns to my house"
Under the new normal, we need to optimize the allocation of resources, foster new impetus and form a new structure, which means that the sooner the differentiation, the better.
Whether it is a region, an industry or an enterprise, there are always some people who get the benefits of "eight" in the differentiation of "two-eighth law", stand out and have a bright future.
Q: While the economy is picking up, we also notice that the current trend of economic operation differentiation is becoming more and more obvious, and the eastern coastal areas have a strong momentum of economic stabilization and recovery. However, the economies of some resource-based provinces in the northeast and central and western regions are still relatively difficult, and foreign power is called "two worlds". What signal does this trend differentiation convey?
Authority: Differentiation is the necessity of economic development.
Under the condition of market economy, resources tend to be concentrated in high-yield areas, and there is a trend of industrial isomorphism. After a period of time, overcapacity will be formed, excessive competition will occur, and excess profits will disappear. At this time, some resources began to look for new places, which produced innovation; Some of them are relatively slow, and they still stay in the same place and wait for it, counting on when "feng shui will take turns to come to my house". The differentiation trend formed by these two situations is due to the law.
Under the new normal, we need to optimize the allocation of resources, foster new impetus and form a new structure, which means that the sooner the differentiation, the better. Whether it is a region, an industry or an enterprise, there are always some people who get the benefits of "eight" in the differentiation of "two-eighth law", stand out and have a bright future. Some of them have suffered, but they have also learned a lesson and know what to do next. I don’t think it’s a bad thing.
Since the reform and opening up, China’s economy has begun to accelerate its differentiation. In this process, a number of dynamic regions, competitive industrial enterprises and well-known brands have emerged. After the international financial crisis, the world economic differentiation accelerated, China entered a new normal, and the domestic economic differentiation further intensified. Last year, when analyzing the economic situation in the first quarter, the central government pointed out that those who actively adapt to the new normal and attach importance to innovation and quality and efficiency have a better development trend; On the contrary, the pressure is relatively high. This year, this trend is still continuing, even intensifying, and it is indeed "a few happy families and a few worried families". In the foreseeable future, in the process of economic differentiation, more dynamic regions, industries and enterprises with more international competitiveness will emerge in China, but the life of some regions, industries and enterprises will become more and more difficult. It is better to work hard than to endure hardships. Now the cadres and masses in these areas, industries and enterprises are abandoning their illusions, striving for self-reliance, actively promoting reform and innovation, and striving to catch up.
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