(The original article was published on October 11th, by Mike Vorkunov of The Athletic website. The content of the article does not represent the translator’s point of view)
Last week, Victor Venbanyama had a very incredible moment when he led the Mets 92 team against the G League Ignition team in the United States. After receiving the ball on the right side of the arc top of Wenbanyama in the transition, he only transported the ball once and then sank to the bottom corner, hitting a drift and leaning back by three points. This talented player, who is 2.26 meters tall, has mastered the technical action of leaning back three points skillfully, without any interference from the defenders, playing like Reggie Miller at his peak.
The most surprising part is that this 18-year-old player, who is also a center with a nominal height of 2.26 meters, has perfect control over his body and everything he needs to put the ball in the basket. Through this bottom corner drift and backward three points, Wen Banyama showed his skillful skills at such a young stage and the reasons why he can become such a special talented player.
To some extent, the competition of various teams for Wenbanyama will partially define the whole new season.If Wenbanyama is really a once-in-a-century talent, then it’s not surprising that teams have tried every means to get him.Welcome to the 2022-23 season, which is a "Battle for Wenbanyama".NBA President Adam Xiao Hua said in an interview last week, "I don’t want the title of’ the next great talent’ to bring bad luck to Wenbanyama, after all, he hasn’t entered the NBA yet. But he does have all the qualities and physical talents that can really change the rules of the game. It seems that he is also eager to be a great player, standing on the big stage facing the lighting team. I know that many NBA teams are eager to get him. It’s really tempting to get Wenbanyama by lottery, but they should continue to compete hard next season. "
Nowadays, people are beginning to wonder what changes Wenbanyama will bring to a team. A simple answer is that no matter which lucky team becomes the biggest winner in the lottery and gets Wenbanyama, it will make the team look brand-new. However, each team has different degrees of talent at present, and getting Venbanya will have different degrees of influence on the speed of each team becoming a championship team or a playoff team.
Winning the No.1 pick in the lottery is not only a success in basketball, but also a surprise for the business department of the team. Superstars with global influence can promote the development of the team in all aspects, promote ticket sales, increase the sales of peripheral products, and improve the market value of the whole team.
Next, we will analyze each team that has the chance to get Venbanyama, and see what he means to each team. The order is from high to low according to the probability of each team winning the No.1 draft estimated by Tankathon website.
Reminder: The three teams with the worst record in NBA each season will have a 14% probability of winning the No.1 draft, and the probability of winning the No.1 draft is 12.5% for the team with the fourth lowest record, 10.5% for the fifth lowest record, 9% for the sixth lowest record, then 7.5% and 6% … and so on, the probability of winning the No.1 draft is 0.5% for the team with the 14th lowest record.
San Antonio
Estimated number one draft probability: 14%
Coach Povich has said many times that the Spurs’ goal in the new season is not to win the championship. Trading DeZhangtai-Murray doomed Spurs to rush to the bottom of the league in the new season. The history of the Spurs has always had good luck in lottery. In 1987, David Robinson won the No.1 lottery, and in 1997, Duncan won the No.1 lottery. These two draft picks established 20 years of success for the Spurs and won five championship trophies.
Getting Venbanama against Spurs may mean a repeat of history, bringing the team a cornerstone player to rely on. The Spurs’ current lineup already has Kelden Johnson, Sohan, primo and wasser. These young players have good long-term development prospects, but it seems that none of them has the potential to grow into a stable All-Star player. If Spurs get Venbanama, they can build a team around him that can return to the peak of team history. The past history of Spurs has proved that they know what to do. Of course, there is still a lot of room for development in Wenbanyama.
Houston rockets
Estimated number one draft probability: 14%
The Rockets already have several young players with attractive prospects. Jay Green performed strongly in the second half of his rookie season, and Shen Jing has talent and courage. Now Kevin Porter, the 30th overall pick in the first round, has shown his potential and can bring a lot of trouble to his opponents. In June this year, the Rockets just picked jabari Smith Jr. in the draft. One day, he will have the opportunity to become a tall and versatile flanker. So the Rockets actually have a good young lineup at present, with solid players in the frontcourt and backcourt.
If the Rockets get Wen Banyama again, including Kevin Porter Jr. and Shen Jing (if they agree to renew their contracts with the Rockets), the Rockets will have three potential all-star regulars at once. At the same time, the Rockets will have a lot of salary space in the offseason in 2023. With Wenbanyama, the Rockets can jump directly to the forefront of emerging strong teams.
oklahoma thunder
Estimated number one draft probability: 14%
It would be too exaggerated if Thunder won the No.1 draft. In the past three seasons, Thunder has focused on the future at the expense of the present. In the middle of every season, the Thunder will quietly turn their heads and start to rot. As a result, they gradually accumulated a lot of talented players around Alexander, including Kitty, Holmgren, Mann, Dot, Jay Williams, Pokusevski and Ji ‘an. Will all these players be famous? Maybe not, but their potential is visible to the naked eye.
As Holmgren’s injury will be fully reimbursed in the new season, Thunder can’t see this unicorn player on stage. Imagine what it would be like for Wen Banyama to appear in Thunder. Thunder can arrange a tall and long talent lineup. All positions have size advantages. Everyone on the court can shoot, dribble and create offensive opportunities, and there are two monster-level basket guards. Getting the Venbanya Horse will make the general manager Presti’s plan a great success, and further promote the league’s protest against the team’s ruin.
Indiana pacers
Estimated number one draft probability: 12.5%
The Pacers are still in an awkward position. halliburton is going to take over the team. Rookie Marcelin is ready to fight alongside him, while the Pacers are still peddling Hilde and Turner. Pacers have never won the No.1 draft in history, and next year may be their first time. The lineup built with halliburton and Wenbanyama as the core can give the Pacers a major advantage in the position of point guard and center. Marcelin can tap his potential in the flank position. Duarte and Isaiah Jackson may also be long-term starters of the team. All this is a very, very good start for the Pacers, increasing their exposure in the national live broadcast. Only one game of the new Pacers is scheduled to be broadcast live in the United States, and there are only five games in the 2021-22 season. If the Pacers can get the Venbanyama, at least there will be a qualitative leap in the number of live games in the United States.
Utah jazz
Estimated number one draft probability: 10.5%
It would be nice if the Jazz could get Venbanyama, for which they paid almost everything. I sent away two All-Star players and three starters just to spoil the competition for Wimbanya. However, Wen Banyama’s situation is not so ideal. He is surrounded by some young players with uncertain future or some veterans who will be traded at any time. At present, there is no better way to promote reconstruction than getting Venbanya Ma, but this jazz team that started from scratch still needs to add many talented teams around him. On the positive side, the Jazz have piles of future draft picks, and have the ability and confidence to push forward the process of reconstruction in a leisurely manner. Or, when needed, they can stud these draft assets to build a competitive team around Wenbanyama.
Orlando magic
Estimated number one draft probability: 9%
If Magic wins the No.1 draft, it will be the second time in the history of their team that they have won the No.1 draft for two consecutive years. The last time was in 1992 and 1993. In 1993, Magic won the No.1 draft with a 1.5% probability (the lowest in history), and Chris Webber was selected. No shortage of inside magic sent Webber to the Warriors in exchange for the flower show "Penny" Fanny Hardaway, and Magic entered the finals under the leadership of No.1 champion Lang O ‘Neill and Penny Hardaway in 1992. The 2.08-meter-tall Bankairo has the potential to be the fulcrum of the magic offensive end, and has the outside skills to create opportunities for himself and his teammates. Flange player Franz Wagner performed strongly in his rookie season. Sagues’s career was unstable at the beginning, but there is still potential to be developed. Wendell Carter and Fultz will be a good lineup puzzle. The future of Bamba and Isaac is uncertain.
If Magic get Venbanyama, they may have a group of super-sized skilled players. It’s incredible. Imagine the picture of Benkairo playing with Wenbanyama, with Sagues and Wagner standing in the bottom corner. Or Sagues is chasing the opponent’s attack point, and the picture of Wenbanyama falling in the inside basket is one of the most interesting endings when Wenbanyama goes to magic.
Detroit piston
Estimated number one draft probability: 7.5%
The piston’s upper limit may be the highest after getting Wenbanyama. Cunningham already looks like the best linebacker in the future, and Ivey may be selected as an All-Star. Looking back on this year’s draft, it’s amazing that Ivey can fall to the fifth overall pick. Sadik Bay has scored 50+ in a single game this season, and is an ideal flank player who is good at shooting. Durham’s new season can prove that he deserves an NBA starting center position, but he certainly won’t be a reason to give up Wimbanya. As for Turta, he is a big bully.
With the help of Cunningham and Venbanyama, the Pistons will have two star players in the next few years, avoiding the long and painful process of finding top star partners with only one star. On the basis of the existing lineup, the pistons naturally have the property that both small balls and big balls can be played, so they can not only fight hard inside, but also open up space to take the technical flow. If Cunningham is only the second best player in the Pistons in the next four years, what a luxury it would be.
Sacramento king
Estimated number one draft probability: 6%
If the king wins the No.1 draft, it’s probably a comfort to them for nearly 20 years, and a late reward is better than nothing. King already has a good core squad, and Wenbanyama can raise the upper limit of the current squad a lot. He can adapt to any player.
Wizards of Washington
Estimated number one draft probability: 4.5%
Even if Wizards get Wimbledon, do you think they can win more than 50 games in a season? Since the 1978-79 season, the Wizards have never won more than 50 games in a single season. However, if we can get Wenbanyama, it will be of great help to the Wizards, a team whose development has stagnated in the past few seasons. The arrival of Bunyama will enable the Wizards to make the best use of the remaining peak period of Bill’s career, and the Wizards already have some interesting talented young people, such as Ba Cun Jian, Afdia, Johnny Davis, and some experienced players like Porzingis and Kuzma. Porgis can tell Wenbanyama what kind of danger a 2.21m big man will face in the NBA. Of course, as an NBA official, I definitely hope that a potential championship team will emerge in Washington, the capital of the United States.
Charlotte wasp
Estimated number one draft probability: 3%
For NBA and team owners, there is an interesting question: Do they prefer to raise the market valuation of the strong team or the weak team among the 30 teams? According to the data of Sportico website, the market value of Hornets ranks fourth from the bottom among all NBA teams. Perhaps international talent stars like Wen Banyama can help Hornets a lot in this respect. We’ve seen this before. According to the data of Forbes.com, Bucks ranked the bottom of the league in market valuation in 2013. A few months later, they chose Brother Alphabet, and now Bucks’ market valuation has climbed to 17th place. It will be interesting to blend with the Hornets on the court. Lamelo-Bauer is an expert in passing, and Wenbanyama will get a lot of empty catches when he plays three balls. They will become the cornerstone partners of the Hornets.
New york Knicks
Estimated number one draft probability: 2%
Even assuming that the Knicks can win the No.1 draft, it will annoy many Knicks fans, who will remind you angrily that the Knicks have never taken advantage of the lottery, let alone won the No.1 draft. But let’s be bold. After all, the Knicks did win the No.1 draft before, and the prize was a center who could change the whole league. The Knicks can do it again. Wenbanyama is a panacea to solve all the needs of the Knicks. Since trading Anthony, the Knicks have never had a star who can be selected into the best lineup, and this summer they missed Mitchell. In the past 20 years, the Knicks have not been able to attract other stars except Anthony. At present, the Knicks have Barrett and some other excellent and young role players, while the team still has many draft assets to acquire more talented players. The Knicks will be more willing to use these picks and young players to change stars if they get Wenbanyama. They know which players can really help.
Portland
Estimated number one draft probability: 1.5%
It will definitely be interesting for Bunyama to go to the Blazers. Lillard continues to lead the Blazers after a year of lineup reorganization. There was a rumor that Lillard might leave, but now it seems that he will stay in the Blazers for several years. The 23-year-old Ampheni Simmons is a reliable partner in the backcourt of Lillard, who has the ability to score continuously. Sharp, the rookie selected by the team this summer, also looks quite good. Beside Lillard, the opponent’s defensive focus, Wenbanyama not only has a great veteran role model to learn from, but also provides a lot of buffer space for him to adapt to the strength of NBA. The Blazers already have enough talent, and the arrival of Wenbanyama can make the Blazers a perennial playoff team in the West almost immediately. As for the higher level, it depends on the growth rate of Wenbanyama and how long Lillard can keep its peak.
Chicago Bulls
Estimated number one draft probability: 1%
From a business point of view, going to the Bulls is an ideal result for both NBA and Wimbledon. As a team with a long history and a huge market, the Bulls jerseys of Wenbanyama will be snapped up on the first day he joined the Bulls. As for the situation on the court, it’s hard to say. Demar derozan has played well with the Bulls this season, but he is 34 years old. The new season will be the last year of his contract. Raven will be a good partner for Wimbledon, Vucevic will become a free agent next summer, and it’s hard to say the situation of Lanzo Ball and Patrick Williams. Nevertheless, the Bulls with Raven, caruso and Healthy Ball, plus Wenbanyama, have a lot to watch, and the lineup around Wenbanyama also has some flexibility.
New Orleans Pelican
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