"Turkey and Egypt will resume the highest level of diplomatic relations and will soon jointly announce!" — — On April 13th, local time, Turkish Foreign Minister cavusoglu said at a joint press conference in Ankara. Beside cavusoglu, visiting Egyptian Foreign Minister Shu Kaili added that the two sides have reached an agreement on the specific timetable for the exchange of ambassadors. "The opportunity will be announced at an appropriate time and preparations will be made for the meeting between the two heads of state."
△ On April 13th, 2023, Turkish Foreign Minister cavusoglu and Egyptian Foreign Minister Choucairy met in Ankara.
This is the second meeting between the two foreign ministers in a month.
On March 18th, cavusoglu visited Cairo, becoming the first Turkish foreign minister to visit Egypt in 10 years, and said that he would upgrade the diplomatic relations between the two countries to the ambassadorial level as soon as possible. At that time, Choucairy was standing beside cavusoglu. This is also the second time that Choucairy has come to Turkey in two months.
On February 27th, Choucairy visited Turkey to express Egypt’s condolences over the strong earthquake in Turkey, and together with cavusoglu, he greeted the relief cargo ship from Egypt in the Mediterranean port of Mersing.
The frequent meetings between the two foreign ministers are only the epitome of the high-level interaction between the two countries for some time.
△ During FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022, under the mediation of Qatari Emir Tamim (second from right), Erdogan (right) and Sethi (left) shook hands.
In November 2022, Turkish President Erdogan and Egyptian President Seyce met during the World Cup — — After years of mutual regret, the two old rivals held hands under the mediation of Qatari Emir Tamim, showing the hope of ending the 10-year relationship breakdown and tense confrontation between the two countries.
Some observers said that such a scene was unimaginable a few years ago!
In June 2022, Turkish Finance Minister Naba proposed to hold the annual meeting of the Islamic Development Bank in Cairo, which was the first time that a Turkish ministerial official visited Egypt in nine years.
Ten years of tense confrontation, conflicts on many fronts, and many contradictions between Turkey and Egypt.
The deterioration of relations between Turkey and Egypt began in 2013. At that time, Egyptian President Morsi was overthrown by the military forces led by Sethi, which triggered Erdogan’s repeated criticism of Sethi. Erdogan once said that he would never talk to people like Sethi. After that, Turkey provided asylum for Egyptian dissidents and allowed them to speak publicly. At the end of 2013, Egypt expelled the Turkish ambassador and recalled its ambassador to Turkey, and Turkey responded with reciprocal measures. Since then, the diplomatic relations between the two countries have been maintained at the agency level.
Turkey’s involvement in the situation in Libya has even caused Egypt’s dissatisfaction. Since the overthrow of the Qaddafi regime in 2011, Libya has been in turmoil, and now it is confronted by two major forces. The government of national unity was recognized by the United Nations and supported by countries such as Turkey and Qatar, while the National Congress was allied with the "National Army" and supported by countries such as Egypt, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Turkey sent troops to Libya at the request of the government of national unity, which further intensified the contradiction with Egypt, and the two countries almost met each other.
△ In June 2021, Turkish Defense Minister acar (right) spoke during his visit to Libya.
On the issue of oil and gas development in the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey and Egypt are also constantly divided. In January 2019, six countries including Egypt, Greece and Cyprus decided to establish the Eastern Mediterranean Natural Gas Forum, but Turkey, a stakeholder in the region, was excluded. In response, at the end of that year, Turkey signed a memorandum of understanding with the Libyan national unity government on "maritime jurisdiction" in the Mediterranean, seeking to obtain a larger exclusive economic zone in the eastern Mediterranean, which was strongly opposed by Egypt, Greece and Cyprus. In August 2020, the Egyptian Parliament approved the maritime boundary agreement signed with Greece, and the Turkish side was strongly dissatisfied with this, believing that it involved disputed waters in the Eastern Mediterranean.
The political environment has changed, economic and trade exchanges have been frequent, and relations between the two countries have slowly warmed up.
Since 2021, Turkey and Egypt have gradually released goodwill. According to the analysis, changes in the international and domestic situations provide opportunities for reconciliation between the two countries.
Turkish foreign policy analyst Idiz analyzed that Qatar’s "breaking off the storm" has gradually eased since 2021, which has accelerated Turkey’s policy shift to some extent. During the storm, Turkey and Qatar became very close, which certainly strengthened the relationship between the two countries, but also caused cracks between Turkey and other Arab countries. With the gradual normalization of relations between Qatar and neighboring countries, "Turkey will be isolated if its regional policies are not changed".
Restrictions on the Muslim Brotherhood have become an important factor in easing relations between the two countries. In March 2021, it was reported that the Turkish government was restricting the activities of the media associated with the Muslim Brotherhood and warned them not to target Egypt and Sethi. Local media reported that this move was welcomed in Cairo.
The grim domestic economic situation has provided an internal motive force for easing relations between the two countries. In recent years, the inflationary pressure in Turkey has been enormous, and the lira has been falling all the way, and it has fallen below the 19 lira mark of 1 US dollar. The situation in Egypt is also not optimistic, the economy is sluggish, and inflation is high. In 2022, the first hot search word on the Internet was actually "today’s dollar quotation". Both countries need to increase economic, financial and commercial interaction with other countries to ease the pressure.
△ The high inflation rate has raised the cost of living for the Turkish people. In Istanbul, people lined up to buy cheap bread.
The phenomenon of "political cold and economic heat" between the two countries can not be ignored. In 2018, the bilateral trade volume between Turkey and Egypt exceeded $5 billion for the first time. By the end of 2022, the bilateral trade volume between the two countries has increased to 7.7 billion US dollars, and Egypt’s exports to Turkey have reached a record 4 billion US dollars — — An increase of 32% over the previous year. Turkey has also become the largest importer of natural gas in Egypt.
Some analysts believe that Turkey and Egypt will usher in general elections in 2023 and 2024, and economic problems will undoubtedly become an important factor affecting the elections. After the strong earthquake, Turkey needs more than 100 billion US dollars for reconstruction. These practical reasons have obviously accelerated the easing of relations between the two countries.
The regional situation is complex, and there are variables in the general election. Turkey-Egypt relations still face many challenges.
Despite the frequent release of goodwill between Turkey and Egypt, some fundamental differences still need to be resolved, and it will take a long time to repair the 10-year rift.
Cavusoglu bluntly said at the press conference on the 13th: "The two countries still hold different views on the Libyan issue, but we will continue to communicate on this." The problem of oil and gas development in the Eastern Mediterranean is even more complicated, involving not only Turkey and Egypt, but also Greece, Cyprus and other countries that have long been at odds with Turkey. Political analysts believe that between Turkey and Egypt, Turkey’s desire to normalize relations between the two countries is obviously more urgent, while for Egypt, it is more hoped that this process will be accelerated after the election.
△ In August, 2022, a Turkish drilling ship set off from Mersing port and went to the Mediterranean for oil exploration.
Recently, in the Middle East, whether among Arab countries or between Iran, Turkey and Arab countries, high-level visits have been frequent, and relations between countries have obviously improved. Public opinion in Turkey also generally expects that under the tide of reconciliation in the Middle East, Turkey can further improve its relations with countries in the region.
The analysis believes that for Turkey, which is in deep economic difficulties and is about to usher in domestic elections, a stable regional situation and external environment mean more possibilities for win-win cooperation and will also create conditions for economic development.
