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(Source: china securities journal Illustration/Wang Jianhua)
This is the best time. After 10 years of formation, the real estate industry in China has been climbing the peak of prosperity and prosperity. This is also an era full of variables. In a "rising" sound, the real estate industry has become one of the main targets of macro-control. Under the background of tight monetary policy, the turning point of "true and illusory" industry is "looming".
After the controversial year of 2007, the real estate industry will usher in a more variable year of 2008, and the long and short differences on this industry will become more and more obvious. However, standing at the crossroads of the bull market, some basic destiny can still be grasped.
Under the influence of wealth growth, demographic dividend and the continuous appreciation of RMB, the real estate boom is expected to be maintained in the next two to three years. At the same time, with the construction of housing security system and the gradual emergence of the effect of credit tightening policy, the contradiction between supply and demand in the real estate market is expected to be alleviated.
It can be predicted that in the future, the development model of over-reliance on land and financial resources will be unsustainable. Along the "Capital Roadmap", industry integration will be further developed, and various factor resources will be concentrated in enterprises with high operational efficiency.
Tightening credit curbs excessive demand.
If we say that the real estate regulation and control policies in 2005 and 2006 were based on "shrinking supply and restraining demand", then this year’s intensive new regulation and control policies regard "balancing supply and demand" as the first goal of the policy. Among them, the policy orientation of restraining excessive demand, especially investment demand, has been continued.
In 2007, the People’s Bank of China raised the deposit and loan interest rates six times, and the benchmark interest rate for one-year loans has been raised to 7.47%. In addition, the reserve ratio was raised to 14.5% 10 times, the highest level in more than 20 years. The rate hike and the frequency of reserve increase are rare in recent years.
In September, the central bank introduced a new policy for second homes to tighten mortgages. In December, the central bank issued a supplementary notice, and the second home loan was strictly defined on a household basis.
Hua Changjin, a researcher at GF Securities, believes that the new mortgage policy will curb the demand for improving living conditions in the current market, and the demand for investment speculation will also be curbed.
Experts in the industry explained that the buyers of the second suite are mainly middle-and high-income groups, and they mainly buy houses by investment and upgrading home ownership. At present, this part of demand undoubtedly accounts for a large proportion. When the credit conditions are loose, this demand will be gradually enlarged in the form of "margin trading".
However, at the current high price, the increase of down payment ratio and interest rate, as well as the corresponding monetary tightening policy, will increase the risk of investing in real estate, so the demand for this part of the house will gradually decline. In addition, the increasing interest burden has become another important cost factor for buyers, which has led them to delay the upgrading of home ownership.
The data shows that since the second half of this year, although real estate prices in first-tier cities have continued to rise, the transaction volume has shrunk dramatically. By the end of the year, the real estate market has fallen into a rare situation in recent years, and prices have begun to loosen. Market analysts pointed out that the local and structural decline in housing prices in the real estate market is a response to the squeeze on excessive investment and speculative demand.
Zhu Zhongyi, secretary-general of China Real Estate Association, said that the contradiction between the overall supply and demand of the real estate market still exists, so reducing investment demand will help ease the pressure of rising house prices.
Housing security points to effective supply.
Undeniably, China, which is in the process of urbanization, has to face the reality of rigid housing demand and land supply constraints. Therefore, the tight supply and demand is a real situation to a great extent.
The research shows that according to the per capita residential building area of 27 square meters at the end of 2006 and the compound growth rate of the national urban population of 3.28% from 2003 to 2006, there will be a demand gap of 510 million square meters of urban housing in China every year.
However, the rise in asset prices caused by abundant liquidity is undoubtedly the accumulation of "bubbles" on this "truth".
The housing problem concerns people’s livelihood. This year, China’s housing security construction has taken substantial steps. In August, the release of "Several Opinions of the State Council on Solving the Housing Difficulties of Urban Low-income Families" and the convening of the National Urban Housing Work Conference conveyed the strongest voice in the history of China’s high-level supervision of housing security.
Near the end of the year, the Ministry of Construction, together with several ministries and commissions, successively issued two important documents, namely, Measures for the Protection of Low-rent Housing and Measures for the Management of Economically Affordable Housing, in order to implement the State Council’s spirit of housing security.
The insiders believe that with the gradual construction of the housing security system, the housing problems of low-and middle-income people and wealthy people will no longer be intertwined, and a large part of the demand will no longer be met through the commercial housing market. At the same time, the clarification of housing demand at different levels is helpful to guide the structural adjustment of housing supply.
"The calculation of the gap between supply and demand in the real estate market in the future will no longer be based on the overall urban population base in the process of urbanization, which will effectively alleviate the shortage of supply and demand." An official from the Housing and Real Estate Department of the Ministry of Construction said.
As a "sandwich" middle-income group, their housing problem is also a real estate regulation need to be considered. Nie Meisheng, president of the Real Estate Chamber of Commerce of the All-China Federation of Industry and Commerce, believes that the "two-limited housing" being introduced in various places can solve the problem that some "sandwich floors" cannot afford housing.
In October this year, the Ministry of Land and Resources requested that "in the future, the total annual supply of low-rent housing, affordable housing and low-priced, small and medium-sized ordinary commodity housing construction land shall not be less than 70% of the total residential supply." Industry experts pointed out that with the change of land supply orientation, the housing of middle-income groups will inevitably be connected with "effective supply".
Market differentiation continues to write capital stories
Whether it is "enclosure" or "circling money", the real estate industry tells the story that "capital is king". Therefore, to balance supply and demand as the first point of all-round regulation, on the one hand, to build housing security based on the long-term, on the other hand, to tighten credit to curb demand to solve recent worries, which will undoubtedly accelerate the differentiation of the real estate industry. Under the guidance of capital, various factor resources will converge to enterprises with high operational efficiency.
A senior person in the industry pointed out that due to the loose credit environment in recent years, the "days" of real estate enterprises are better. Industry concentration did not rise with the boom. Statistics show that there are 50,000 to 60,000 real estate enterprises in China, and there are 30,000 to 40,000 when there are few, and the market share of the top five is less than 5%.
However, under the background of stricter regulation and tight monetary policy, not all real estate enterprises can obtain sufficient cash flow, and enterprises with tight capital chains will probably be eliminated in mergers and acquisitions, and the market pricing power will also be increasingly concentrated.
Wang Shi, chairman of Vanke Company, believes that it is a good thing that industry resources are concentrated in advantageous companies. On the one hand, it can reduce idle land, on the other hand, the rights and interests of buyers can be better protected.
Financial experts pointed out that a key indicator reflecting the operational efficiency is the capital turnover rate. For real estate enterprises, the capital turnover rate is directly proportional to the land development rate. In other words, if the industry factor resources are concentrated in enterprises with high operational efficiency, it will be conducive to the speed of land development and reduce the occurrence of "hoarding land" and "covering up the market".
The efficiency of capital operation is one side of the coin, and the ability of continuous financing is the other side. After the "faucet" of credit is gradually tightened, the capital market will become a more important "water source". Since the beginning of this year, many real estate enterprises have either issued additional shares or listed on the backdoor. WIND data shows that from January to November this year, real estate listed companies raised a total of 34.6276 billion yuan through additional issuance, an increase of 145.61% over the same period last year.
It can be predicted that the overall prosperity of the real estate industry will not be reversed if the capital market still maintains smooth channels for financing high-quality companies. If there is an unbalanced allocation of capital after the credit tightening, the right to speak in the real estate industry will also shift. This is not necessarily an improvement for the current real estate industry. (Reporter Lin? )
Editor: Yu Qingqing
