Recently, "China Renewable Energy Development Report 2024" (hereinafter referred to as "Report") compiled by hydropower and water conservancy planning () was released.
According to the Report, the installed capacity of renewable energy in China reached a record high in 2024, accounting for more than 60% of the newly installed capacity of renewable energy in the world. It is estimated that the installed capacity of wind power photovoltaic power generation will increase by another 280 million kilowatts this year. With the increasing proportion of new energy, how to develop well and quickly has attracted much attention from both inside and outside the industry.
The installed capacity has increased substantially.
The new energy installed capacity has increased substantially, further consolidating its important position in power installed capacity. According to the Report, in 2024, the cumulative installed capacity of wind power reached 520 million kilowatts, and the cumulative installed capacity of photovoltaic reached 890 million kilowatts. The world’s highest altitude photovoltaic project and the largest "fishing and light complementary" project were put into production; The development of new energy storage is centralized and large-scale.
Technological innovation is an important driving force for industrial upgrading. In 2024, the maximum off-line stand-alone capacity of onshore wind power will increase to 15 MW, and the maximum off-line stand-alone capacity of offshore wind power will reach 26 MW. The conversion efficiency of photovoltaic crystalline silicon cells is significantly improved, the cost of photothermal power generation is reduced, and the iteration of energy storage technology is accelerated.
While accelerating the development of new energy sources, China has strengthened the regulation ability of power system to ensure the safety of power grid. During the National Day of 2024, the first market-oriented transaction of distributed new energy to ensure safety and promote consumption was piloted in Jianshan New District, Jiaxing City, Zhejiang Province. It is reported that the holiday photovoltaic resources are locked in advance through research and judgment, and when the regional load drops obviously and the photovoltaic is inverted, the winning bid resources are called as needed, with a total clearing capacity of 10 MW and all of them are implemented.
"During the holidays, most enterprises have a holiday. Through market-oriented means, photovoltaic adjustable capacity resources can be effectively managed and deployed during the period when the power grid load is significantly reduced and the photovoltaic power generation power is high, supporting the safe and stable operation of the power grid." Liu Xing, deputy director of the marketing department of State Grid Jiaxing Power Supply Company, said that electricity market trading has become an important way to help the high-quality development of new energy.
According to the Report, in 2024, new breakthroughs will be made in market-oriented transactions, with the trading power of green electricity and green certificates reaching 446 billion kWh, up 364% year-on-year, and the market-oriented trading power of new energy accounting for 47%.
In terms of international cooperation, China contributed one-third of the global investment in clean energy transformation, and provided clean energy products to more than 200 countries and regions. The total contracted amount of overseas hydropower, wind power and photovoltaic projects reached US$ 38 billion.
Zhang Zongliang, an academician of China Academy of Engineering, said that China’s newly installed renewable energy sources such as wind and light have contributed more than 40% to the world, ensuring the safety of supply chains such as photovoltaic modules and wind turbines in various countries. China’s renewable energy industry is becoming the backbone of promoting global energy transformation and coping with climate change.
Hydropower innovation becomes the key
The rapid growth of new energy installed capacity puts forward higher requirements for hydropower development.
The data shows that in 2024, the cumulative installed capacity of conventional hydropower in China was 377 million kilowatts, accounting for 11.3% of the power system; The power generation is 1.36 trillion kWh, accounting for 13.7% of the national power generation, and accounting for nearly 40% of the renewable energy generation. Hydropower still plays an important role in clean power supply. At the same time, hydropower can start and stop quickly, operate flexibly and provide inertia support. It is an important supporting and regulating power supply for power system and plays an important role in promoting the consumption of new energy.
"In the face of the new situation and new requirements, the functional positioning of hydropower in the power system with equal emphasis on power supply and flexible regulation will be further consolidated, and the flexible regulation in the medium and long term will become more and more significant." Dr. Li Sheng, dean of the Hydropower Planning and Design Institute, said.
In terms of continuous incremental hydropower development, Dr. Li said that it is necessary to deepen the research on hydropower planning (adjustment) in combination with the new orientation of hydropower development, and steadily promote the approval of hydropower planning in key river basins. Strengthen policy support, mechanism improvement and land guarantee, accelerate the construction of major hydropower bases and leading reservoir power stations, and promote the development and construction of a number of high-quality medium-sized hydropower stations according to local conditions.
In terms of innovation to promote the upgrading of existing hydropower, Dr. Li believes that it is necessary to systematically carry out relevant research on the potential of hydropower expansion in major river basins in China, improve the investment recovery mechanism and management system of hydropower expansion, and strive to promote the implementation of hydropower expansion in a number of river basins with high degree of development, system demand and good work foundation. Strengthen the joint optimal operation of cascade hydropower in river basins, strengthen the coordinated operation of hydropower, water conservancy and power grid, tap the hydropower potential of existing river basins and enhance comprehensive benefits.
Compared with conventional hydropower, pumped storage power station has stronger regulation ability. In January this year, Unit 6 of State Grid Xinyuan Liaoning Qingyuan Pumped Storage Power Station, the largest pumped storage power station in Northeast China contracted by () Group Beijing Survey, Design and Research Institute Co., Ltd., was officially put into commercial operation, marking that Qingyuan Pumped Storage Power Station was fully put into operation for power generation. Since the first unit was put into operation in December, 2023, the power station units have been started on demand and responded quickly, giving full play to the important role of "stabilizer, regulator and balancer" of pumped storage. After the power station is put into full operation, it will effectively improve the consumption level of new energy in Liaoning Province and even in Northeast China.
"Pumped storage, as a flexible regulated power supply with the most mature technology, the most economic advantage and large-scale development potential, is an important technical support for accelerating the construction of a new power system, and it is of great strategic significance to promote its high-quality development." Zhao Zenghai, vice president of the General Institute of Hydropower Planning and Design, said that it is necessary to strengthen technological innovation, improve the system and mechanism, optimize the cost level of pumped storage projects, and continuously maintain the competitiveness of pumped storage in new power systems.
Turn to "market+technology" drive
According to the Notice on Deepening the Market-oriented Reform of On-grid Electricity Price of New Energy to Promote the High-quality Development of New Energy, from June 1st this year, all newly put into operation new energy power generation projects will be traded in the market in principle, and the electricity price will be decided by the market. The uncertainty of future electricity price and yield will increase, so the market will have a certain wait-and-see mood.
"The full entry of new energy into the market is a sign that the industry is maturing, and it may face fluctuations in the short term. However, in the long run, China’s determination in energy transformation, market demand space and the potential of technological progress will jointly support new energy as a new engine for economic growth." Zhang Yiguo, vice president of the Hydropower Planning and Design Institute, said.
From the long-term demand, China’s total energy consumption will continue to grow for a long time, and new energy is still the core of energy transformation. To achieve the goal of "double carbon", the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic needs to maintain a high growth scale in the medium and long term.
From the perspective of price mechanism, marketization is the only way to improve the efficiency of resource allocation. The market-oriented mechanism guides the investment to optimize the layout through price signals, which may be adjusted due to the fluctuation of electricity price in the short term, but it will accelerate the technical iteration and cost reduction in the long term. Establishing the mechanism of price difference settlement outside the market will provide the bottom guarantee for the new energy income and stabilize the investment expectation.
From the perspective of policy and technology, the state continues to promote major projects such as "Shagehuang" base, offshore wind power, water and scenery integration, and provide clear incremental directions for the industry. In terms of technological innovation, technologies such as network-based new energy, large-capacity energy storage and hydrogen energy coupling will enhance the reliable substitution ability of new energy and enhance market competitiveness.
Experts said that new energy has shifted from "policy-driven" to "market-driven+technology-driven", and short-term pain is an inevitable stage of transformation. However, China’s economic growth resilience, energy security demands and global carbon neutrality consensus have determined the long-term improvement of new energy. Fundamental. Short-term adjustment does not change the long-term trend. The industry should strengthen its confidence and actively adapt to new changes, focusing on micro-site optimization, load matching and cost control, and coping with market challenges through high-quality projects. (Economic Daily reporter Wang Yuchen)
Source: China Economic Net-Economic Daily Author: Wang Yichen
关于作者